The Chargers have the board’s highest win estimate at 81.1%. Our 2025 efficiency baseline puts their defense seventh against Arizona’s 24th-ranked offense, supporting a game the defense can control. Los Angeles ranked only 25th on offense, so protection and execution still matter.
Tradeoff: All entries using LAC share the same result.
0 of 2 losses
Watch before kickoff: Can Joe Alt and the new center keep Herbert out of long-yardage situations? The Chargers allowed 60 sacks last season, on 9.5% of team dropbacks. Protection calls and the opening offensive-line lineup are the key checks.
Reviewed Sep 8, 2026, 3:29 PM PT
Reasons for all three options
Safe Pick · Chargers The Chargers have the board’s highest win estimate at 81.1%. Our 2025 efficiency baseline puts their defense seventh against Arizona’s 24th-ranked offense, supporting a game the defense can control. Los Angeles ranked only 25th on offense, so protection and execution still matter. Tradeoff: All entries using LAC share the same result.
Risky Pick · Lions Detroit’s eighth-ranked offense in our 2025 efficiency baseline gives it a credible path at home. New Orleans ranked ninth on defense, so this is a tougher assignment than the Saints’ record alone suggests. At 73.2%, Detroit gives up about eight percentage points of immediate win chance versus LAC. Tradeoff: Detroit has stronger later opportunities in the preliminary price matrix. No proven popularity edge.
Strategic Pick · Jaguars Jacksonville offers a 77.6% win estimate and gives Amara Bravo a separate game from the two Chargers entries. Its third-ranked defense in our 2025 efficiency baseline faces Cleveland’s 31st-ranked offense. Cleveland’s fourth-ranked defense makes clean possessions from Trevor Lawrence essential. Tradeoff: About 3.5 percentage points less win chance than LAC; future prices are preliminary.
Amara Bravo
LIVE
Recommended · Strategic Pick
Jaguars
vs Browns
77.6%win chance 22.4% strike risk
ChoiceTeamWinPS
Safe PickLAC81.1%14
Risky PickDET73.2%11
Strategic Pick ✓JAX77.6%17
Why recommended
Jacksonville offers a 77.6% win estimate and gives Amara Bravo a separate game from the two Chargers entries. Its third-ranked defense in our 2025 efficiency baseline faces Cleveland’s 31st-ranked offense. Cleveland’s fourth-ranked defense makes clean possessions from Trevor Lawrence essential.
Tradeoff: About 3.5 percentage points less win chance than LAC; future prices are preliminary.
0 of 2 losses
Watch before kickoff: Can Lawrence avoid short fields against a defense that ranked fourth in our 2025 efficiency measure? Jacksonville allowed only 3.94 yards per carry last year; sustaining that run defense would put more of the burden on Cleveland’s passing game.
Reviewed Sep 8, 2026, 3:29 PM PT
Reasons for all three options
Safe Pick · Chargers The Chargers have the board’s highest win estimate at 81.1%. Our 2025 efficiency baseline puts their defense seventh against Arizona’s 24th-ranked offense, supporting a game the defense can control. Los Angeles ranked only 25th on offense, so protection and execution still matter. Tradeoff: All entries using LAC share the same result.
Risky Pick · Lions Detroit’s eighth-ranked offense in our 2025 efficiency baseline gives it a credible path at home. New Orleans ranked ninth on defense, so this is a tougher assignment than the Saints’ record alone suggests. At 73.2%, Detroit gives up about eight percentage points of immediate win chance versus LAC. Tradeoff: Detroit has stronger later opportunities in the preliminary price matrix. No proven popularity edge.
Strategic Pick · Jaguars Jacksonville offers a 77.6% win estimate and gives Amara Bravo a separate game from the two Chargers entries. Its third-ranked defense in our 2025 efficiency baseline faces Cleveland’s 31st-ranked offense. Cleveland’s fourth-ranked defense makes clean possessions from Trevor Lawrence essential. Tradeoff: About 3.5 percentage points less win chance than LAC; future prices are preliminary.
Amara Charlie
LIVE
Recommended · Safe Pick
Chargers
vs Cardinals
81.1%win chance 18.9% strike risk
ChoiceTeamWinPS
Safe Pick ✓LAC81.1%14
Risky PickDET73.2%11
Strategic PickJAX77.6%17
Why recommended
The Chargers have the board’s highest win estimate at 81.1%. Our 2025 efficiency baseline puts their defense seventh against Arizona’s 24th-ranked offense, supporting a game the defense can control. Los Angeles ranked only 25th on offense, so protection and execution still matter.
Tradeoff: All entries using LAC share the same result.
0 of 2 losses
Watch before kickoff: Can Joe Alt and the new center keep Herbert out of long-yardage situations? The Chargers allowed 60 sacks last season, on 9.5% of team dropbacks. Protection calls and the opening offensive-line lineup are the key checks.
Reviewed Sep 8, 2026, 3:29 PM PT
Reasons for all three options
Safe Pick · Chargers The Chargers have the board’s highest win estimate at 81.1%. Our 2025 efficiency baseline puts their defense seventh against Arizona’s 24th-ranked offense, supporting a game the defense can control. Los Angeles ranked only 25th on offense, so protection and execution still matter. Tradeoff: All entries using LAC share the same result.
Risky Pick · Lions Detroit’s eighth-ranked offense in our 2025 efficiency baseline gives it a credible path at home. New Orleans ranked ninth on defense, so this is a tougher assignment than the Saints’ record alone suggests. At 73.2%, Detroit gives up about eight percentage points of immediate win chance versus LAC. Tradeoff: Detroit has stronger later opportunities in the preliminary price matrix. No proven popularity edge.
Strategic Pick · Jaguars Jacksonville offers a 77.6% win estimate and gives Amara Bravo a separate game from the two Chargers entries. Its third-ranked defense in our 2025 efficiency baseline faces Cleveland’s 31st-ranked offense. Cleveland’s fourth-ranked defense makes clean possessions from Trevor Lawrence essential. Tradeoff: About 3.5 percentage points less win chance than LAC; future prices are preliminary.
Win = this game’s outright win chance. PS = cumulative Pick Strength if that option is chosen.
Public field
Field heat
Week 1 · Reviewed Sep 8, 2026, 10:09 PM PT
Chalk heat is how much of a named public survivor field is on a team. It is not a win chance and it does not change Pick Strength.
Chargers
—
Public field share
No reviewed ownership published — we do not invent a percentage.
Jaguars
—
Public field share
No reviewed ownership published — we do not invent a percentage.
Lions
—
Public field share
No reviewed ownership published — we do not invent a percentage.
No reviewed survivor fade claims this week.
Ownership, fade, and upset call
Ownership / chalk heat is a dated share of a named public survivor field (for example Circa or Yahoo). Missing readings show an em dash. We never invent a percentage, and we do not blend ownership into market win probability or Pick Strength on the pick cards.
Survivor fade is a sourced claim that the field is too concentrated on a side. That team may still win. These cards are not moneyline underdog recommendations.
Upset call lives on This Week’s Watchlist. It flags underdogs with a market path to beat a favorite. A fade is about field concentration; an upset call is about the game.
Three entries
Portfolio
Week 2 eligibility · After completed Week 1 results
Amara Alpha
1-strike
1 of 2 strikes
LAC
This weekNot yet released
Amara Bravo
Alive
0 of 2 strikes
JAX
This weekNot yet released
Amara Charlie
1-strike
1 of 2 strikes
LAC
This weekNot yet released
Amara Bravo separates on LAC risk.
How to use. Each card is one entry. Strikes and used-team chips are the inventory for the next pick. This week’s team appears only after that brief is public. Alive is a clean record; 1-strike means one loss remains.
This-week outcomes only. It is not a prize forecast and does not publish later-week assignments. Ratings never blend into these market chances.
Both sides of the contest
Matchup Analysis
Game-level reads · market baseline first · 4 games
Read each game top to bottom: market first, then both sides, then when to rethink. These cards hold the full read for now. Deeper team and player numbers will open from here later.
Each card covers one game, not one pick team. Win chances come from the saved betting board. nfelo and FPI are a second look only; they never blend into that number. Team articles below remain the option-team writeups. Completed-week results are appended under the original forecast.
Result appended: JAX won. Original pregame case is unchanged.
JAX 77.6%Favorite · no-vig outright win chance
CLE 22.1%Underdog · upset chance
UnchangedFavorite change · 2 books with repeats
Paired moneylines have the bookmaker margin removed before averaging books. Outright chances include the retained tie prior. Capture times are observation times, not provider quote times. Tie prior 0.3%.
Jacksonville is the home favorite at 77.6%. The football foundation is a third-ranked 2025 defense against Cleveland’s 31st-ranked offense, plus last year’s 13-4 versus 5-12 records. Liam Coen returns for a second year. Those records and ranks are context around the market price, not a separate win model.
Upset mechanism
Cleveland ranked fourth on defense last season while Jacksonville ranked 14th on offense. Trevor Lawrence and center Robert Hainsey have to avoid sacks, turnovers and short fields. If Jacksonville’s run defense (3.94 yards per carry last year) slips, Cleveland can sustain drives and turn this into a one-score game. A 22.1% loss-or-tie chance is the price of using Jacksonville instead of the Chargers.
Supporting evidence
FanDuel CLE +350 / JAX -450 and BetUS CLE +320 / JAX -400 are unchanged across captured windows. Official Jaguars notes frame the home opener after a 13-4 season. The 2025 efficiency baseline pairs Jacksonville’s defense with Cleveland’s offense as the cleanest side of the matchup.
Counterevidence
A game-time Jacksonville weather forecast was not obtained in this run, so no weather adjustment was applied. Injury listings were incomplete. Cleveland’s defense is the warning against treating the Browns as a bye week. About 3.5 percentage points of immediate win chance is given up versus LAC.
Survivor implication: Puts Steezy in a different game from the two Chargers entries. Separate games reduce shared first-strike risk if outcomes are independent; the prize benefit of that split is unproven. This is a portfolio choice, not a claim that Jacksonville is the stronger football team.
Reconsider if
Lawrence or the interior line is limited, Cleveland’s listed availability improves in a way the market has not yet shown, weather becomes a game-script issue, or a reviewed board no longer prices Jacksonville as a strong home favorite.
Result appended: DET won. Original pregame case is unchanged.
DET 73.2%Favorite · no-vig outright win chance
NO 26.5%Underdog · upset chance
-0.2 ppFavorite change · 2 books with repeats
Paired moneylines have the bookmaker margin removed before averaging books. Outright chances include the retained tie prior. Capture times are observation times, not provider quote times. Tie prior 0.3%.
Paired odds: FanDuel NO +270 / DET -335 · Sep 8, 2026, 3:29 PM PT; BetUS NO +255 / DET -310 · Sep 8, 2026, 9:10 AM PT
Case for the favorite
Detroit is a credible home favorite at 73.2%. A mostly veteran offense ranked eighth in the 2025 efficiency baseline, and Hutchinson’s pressure is a path to keeping Tyler Shough off schedule. The Lions are on the shortlist because the football is real, not because the price is the safest on the board.
Upset mechanism
New Orleans ranked ninth on defense last season and allowed 3.97 yards per carry, so this is a tougher assignment than the Saints’ record alone suggests. Goff and Gibbs must earn manageable third downs while the line contains Chase Young. The Saints won four of their final five games last year; that close is a warning, not a new team rating. Strike risk is 26.8%, about eight points higher than LAC.
Supporting evidence
The latest FanDuel pair is NO +270 / DET -335 after a small move from +275 / -350; BetUS is unchanged at +255 / -310. Official Lions notes highlight the Week 1 assignment, Goff, and the edge. The 2025 baseline supplies Detroit’s offensive rank and New Orleans’ defensive rank.
Counterevidence
Detroit starts with a new offensive coordinator. Campbell pointed to Shough’s progress and Olave’s threat. The captured board shows a slight favorite-win decline, and there is no demonstrated popularity edge that pays for the extra immediate risk. Empty injury listings apply here as well.
Survivor implication: Risky Pick relative to the shortlist: another game for spreading exposure, at a clearly higher first-strike chance than LAC or JAX. No field-popularity adjustment is applied. Not a recommendation to chase.
Reconsider if
Gibbs or the offensive line cannot create manageable downs, Goff’s protection against Young looks compromised, Hutchinson is limited, or the saved win chance falls far enough that Detroit is no longer a credible alternative.
Result appended: ARI won. Original pregame case is unchanged.
LAC 81.1%Favorite · no-vig outright win chance
ARI 18.5%Underdog · upset chance
UnchangedFavorite change · 2 books with repeats
Paired moneylines have the bookmaker margin removed before averaging books. Outright chances include the retained tie prior. Capture times are observation times, not provider quote times. Tie prior 0.3%.
Paired odds: FanDuel ARI +410 / LAC -550 · Sep 8, 2026, 3:29 PM PT; BetUS ARI +425 / LAC -550 · Sep 8, 2026, 9:10 AM PT
Case for the favorite
Los Angeles is the home favorite at 81.1% on the saved board, the highest win chance among Week 1 option games. The 2025 efficiency baseline supports a defense-led game: Chargers seventh on defense against Arizona 24th on offense. Harbaugh’s Chargers won 11 games in each of the last two seasons; Arizona finished 3-14 and enters with a new head coach. Those records are context, not an extra numerical boost on top of the market.
Upset mechanism
The Chargers ranked only 25th on offense last season and allowed 60 team sacks, 9.5% of pass attempts plus sacks. Mike McDaniel is installing a new offense and rookie Jake Slaughter is the listed starting center. If protection fails and Herbert is forced into long-yardage downs, Arizona does not need a strong roster grade to keep the game within reach. An 18.9% loss-or-tie chance remains after removing book margin and allowing for a tie.
Supporting evidence
FanDuel and BetUS paired quotes are unchanged across the captured windows at ARI +410 / LAC -550 and ARI +425 / LAC -550. Official team notes identify Slaughter at center and McDaniel as offensive coordinator. The 2025 nflverse team-stat baseline supplies the efficiency ranks used above; they describe last season, not a new rating for this game.
Counterevidence
Sunday injury listings were empty in this snapshot and must not be read as healthy rosters. Last season’s sack rate and offensive rank are backward-looking. Two entries share this result, so a Chargers loss or tie would put both Steez and SteezyAI on one strike together. Empty availability and a new offense are the main reasons the market’s 81.1% is not treated as a lock.
Survivor implication: Highest immediate win chance on the shortlist. Steez and SteezyAI share the same game outcome if both stay on Los Angeles. That is a first-week survival statement, not a prize or season probability.
Reconsider if
Joe Alt or the new center cannot keep Herbert out of obvious passing downs, quarterback or line availability changes, or the saved favorite win chance is no longer the strongest option on a reviewed board.
Result appended: MIN won. Original pregame case is unchanged.
MIN 51.8%Favorite · no-vig outright win chance
GB 47.9%Underdog · upset chance
UnchangedFavorite change · 1 book with repeats
Paired moneylines have the bookmaker margin removed before averaging books. Outright chances include the retained tie prior. Capture times are observation times, not provider quote times. Tie prior 0.3%.
Minnesota is a slight home favorite at 51.8% on a single named book. That is a market lean, not a strong-favorite case. The 2025 baseline’s cleaner side for the Vikings is defense (sixth) against Green Bay’s offense (fourth), which is a high-level collision rather than a mismatch.
Upset mechanism
Green Bay is the highest outright underdog probability on the captured board, about 47.9%. FanDuel’s pair is GB +100 / MIN -118 across every saved capture; only one book is present, so this is not an averaged two-book consensus. A near coin flip can flip on a few plays. Inclusion here is field context, not a survivor selection.
Supporting evidence
Three FanDuel captures at the same prices, including the report snapshot. The Week 1 upset-watch finding already flagged this game as the highest underdog chance on the board and labeled the single-book limit. 2025 ranks: Packers fourth on offense, 22nd on defense; Vikings 28th on offense, sixth on defense.
Counterevidence
One named book only. Highest underdog likelihood does not establish value or a survivor edge. Minnesota’s 2025 offense ranked 28th, so the home favorite is not carrying last year’s attack. Near-even prices can lead an upset list without being a pick.
Survivor implication: Not on the entry shortlist. A coin-flip favorite is the wrong shape for a first-week survival card. The board is recorded so later reviews can see which games were close, not to recommend Green Bay or Minnesota.
Reconsider if
A second named book disagrees enough to change which side is favored, or availability news turns a near-even game into a missing-starter problem. Even then this remains a watch item, not an automatic option-team promotion.
Path survival is the product of market no-vig win chances along an approximate route through the priced window. Softest week is the lowest of those chances. Weeks we’re protecting are the thinner later weeks this route tries to save a strong team for. This is not pool EV and not a proven season optimum. Ratings flags are a second look only; they never blend into these percentages.
Priced through Week 7 · 7 of 18 remaining weeks. Later weeks on this window use schedule estimates, not named-book quotes.
Choose an entry to see its this-week start and the path story that goes with it. Later-week team names stay off this page.
Amara Alpha · 0 losses · 0 teams used
This week
Start with the Chargers
vs Cardinals · 81.1% · −8.5 Agree
Path survival
18.4%
Softest week
Week 7 · 67.8%
Weeks we’re protecting
Week 7, Week 5, Week 6
An approximate strong planned path through Week 7 from frozen market no-vig win chances — not a proven season optimum. Ratings never change these percentages.
This week
Chargers Current draftvs Cardinals · 81.1% · −8.5Agree
Path survival
18.4%
Softest week
Week 7 · 67.8%
Weeks we’re protecting
Week 7, Week 5, Week 6
This week
Jaguarsvs Browns · 77.6% · −8.5Agree
Path survival
17.6%
Softest week
Week 7 · 67.8%
Weeks we’re protecting
Week 7, Week 5, Week 6
This week
Lionsvs Saints · 73.2% · −7Agree
Path survival
16.6%
Softest week
Week 7 · 67.8%
Weeks we’re protecting
Week 7, Week 5, Week 6
This week
Eaglesvs Commanders · 67.1% · −6Agree
Path survival
15.2%
Softest week
Week 1 · 67.1%
Weeks we’re protecting
Week 7, Week 5, Week 6
This week
Bengalsvs Buccaneers · 64.6% · −3.5Agree
Path survival
14.6%
Softest week
Week 1 · 64.6%
Weeks we’re protecting
Week 7, Week 5, Week 6
These are approximate strong planned paths, grouped by this week’s pick. They are not a proven season optimum and do not publish later-week assignments.
Where strong options run thin
Weeks with fewer teams around 70% or better on the frozen board. Those are the weeks this path tries to protect. Later weeks without prices sit outside this path.
This week3 strong options
Week 27 strong options
Week 34 strong options
Week 44 strong options
Week 52 strong options
Week 63 strong options
Week 70 strong options
Weeks 8–18No price
Amara Bravo · 0 losses · 0 teams used
This week
Start with the Jaguars
vs Browns · 77.6% · −8.5 Agree
Path survival
17.6%
Softest week
Week 7 · 67.8%
Weeks we’re protecting
Week 7, Week 5, Week 6
An approximate strong planned path through Week 7 from frozen market no-vig win chances — not a proven season optimum. Ratings never change these percentages.
This week
Jaguars Current draftvs Browns · 77.6% · −8.5Agree
Path survival
17.6%
Softest week
Week 7 · 67.8%
Weeks we’re protecting
Week 7, Week 5, Week 6
This week
Chargersvs Cardinals · 81.1% · −8.5Agree
Path survival
18.4%
Softest week
Week 7 · 67.8%
Weeks we’re protecting
Week 7, Week 5, Week 6
This week
Lionsvs Saints · 73.2% · −7Agree
Path survival
16.6%
Softest week
Week 7 · 67.8%
Weeks we’re protecting
Week 7, Week 5, Week 6
This week
Eaglesvs Commanders · 67.1% · −6Agree
Path survival
15.2%
Softest week
Week 1 · 67.1%
Weeks we’re protecting
Week 7, Week 5, Week 6
This week
Bengalsvs Buccaneers · 64.6% · −3.5Agree
Path survival
14.6%
Softest week
Week 1 · 64.6%
Weeks we’re protecting
Week 7, Week 5, Week 6
These are approximate strong planned paths, grouped by this week’s pick. They are not a proven season optimum and do not publish later-week assignments.
Where strong options run thin
Weeks with fewer teams around 70% or better on the frozen board. Those are the weeks this path tries to protect. Later weeks without prices sit outside this path.
This week3 strong options
Week 27 strong options
Week 34 strong options
Week 44 strong options
Week 52 strong options
Week 63 strong options
Week 70 strong options
Weeks 8–18No price
Amara Charlie · 0 losses · 0 teams used
This week
Start with the Chargers
vs Cardinals · 81.1% · −8.5 Agree
Path survival
18.4%
Softest week
Week 7 · 67.8%
Weeks we’re protecting
Week 7, Week 5, Week 6
An approximate strong planned path through Week 7 from frozen market no-vig win chances — not a proven season optimum. Ratings never change these percentages.
This week
Chargers Current draftvs Cardinals · 81.1% · −8.5Agree
Path survival
18.4%
Softest week
Week 7 · 67.8%
Weeks we’re protecting
Week 7, Week 5, Week 6
This week
Jaguarsvs Browns · 77.6% · −8.5Agree
Path survival
17.6%
Softest week
Week 7 · 67.8%
Weeks we’re protecting
Week 7, Week 5, Week 6
This week
Lionsvs Saints · 73.2% · −7Agree
Path survival
16.6%
Softest week
Week 7 · 67.8%
Weeks we’re protecting
Week 7, Week 5, Week 6
This week
Eaglesvs Commanders · 67.1% · −6Agree
Path survival
15.2%
Softest week
Week 1 · 67.1%
Weeks we’re protecting
Week 7, Week 5, Week 6
This week
Bengalsvs Buccaneers · 64.6% · −3.5Agree
Path survival
14.6%
Softest week
Week 1 · 64.6%
Weeks we’re protecting
Week 7, Week 5, Week 6
These are approximate strong planned paths, grouped by this week’s pick. They are not a proven season optimum and do not publish later-week assignments.
Where strong options run thin
Weeks with fewer teams around 70% or better on the frozen board. Those are the weeks this path tries to protect. Later weeks without prices sit outside this path.
This week3 strong options
Week 27 strong options
Week 34 strong options
Week 44 strong options
Week 52 strong options
Week 63 strong options
Week 70 strong options
Weeks 8–18No price
Advanced · all 32 teams and highlight settings
Open this for the full this-week board. Changing the numbers only recolors the chart and table. It does not change this week’s pick or the path stories.
Swipe the chart horizontally to see all teams.
Team / opponent
Win chance
Pool rank / PS added
Cumulative PS
Alive through W4
Survival cost*
Cost of using team†
Risk check
Los Angeles Chargers vs Arizona Cardinals Current draft
81.1%
14
14
82.8%
0.0 pp
0.0 pp
Within limits
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cleveland Browns
77.6%
17
17
81.5%
1.3 pp
0.0 pp
Within limits
Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints
73.2%
11
11
79.8%
3.0 pp
0.0 pp
Above limitsGame-win gap 7.9 pp exceeds 4.0 pp; Survival gap 3.0 pp exceeds 2.0 pp
First check eligibility and current loss state. Favor conserving a team only when the survival tradeoff is acceptable. *Survival cost is the gap to the best eligible short-window estimate. †Cost of using a team is a hypothetical inventory comparison. Actual survival already includes this cost—do not subtract it twice.
Odds snapshot 2026-09-08T22:29:58Z. Optimal path is a planning aid, not a league-win forecast.
Research & analysis
Why these teams made the shortlist
The Matchup Read
One breakdown per team. The football priorities below are our interpretation of the cited team reports; win estimates come from the saved betting board.
Home Base: SoFi Stadium, where the Chargers open their season. Archive photograph, July 2022. Photo: Benoît Prieur · CC0 1.0
Los Angeles is our Safe Pick because it has the highest estimated win chance on the current board: 81.1%. The home matchup supports that starting point. The Chargers have won 11 games in each of Jim Harbaugh’s first two seasons; Arizona finished 3–14 last year and enters with a new head coach. Those records provide context, rather than an extra numerical boost to the market estimate.
The 2025 efficiency baseline explains both the appeal and the concern: Los Angeles ranked seventh on defense but 25th on offense, while Arizona ranked 24th on offense and 26th on defense. Justin Herbert needs cleaner pockets, with Joe Alt and rookie center Jake Slaughter central to that improvement. The Chargers allowed 60 team sacks last year, or 9.5% of pass attempts plus sacks. Those are last season’s results, not a forecast of the new offense.
The uncertainty is execution: Mike McDaniel is installing a new offense, and the rookie center is a real transition. “Safe” still means an 18.9% chance of a loss or tie. We put Amara Alpha and Amara Charlie here because immediate win probability leads our decision; both entries share the same outcome.
Matchup to watch: Can Joe Alt and the new center keep Herbert out of long-yardage situations? The Chargers allowed 60 sacks last season, on 9.5% of team dropbacks. Protection calls and the opening offensive-line lineup are the key checks.
Lions: a good favorite with a higher price in risk
Alternative for the active entries
Detroit’s 73.2% win estimate makes it a credible alternative at home against New Orleans. It is our Risky Pick relative to the shortlist: the estimated chance of a loss or tie is 26.8%, about eight percentage points higher than the Chargers. A mostly veteran offense is a reason to consider Detroit; the probability gap is the reason it is not our recommendation.
Detroit ranked eighth on offense in our 2025 efficiency baseline, but New Orleans ranked ninth on defense and allowed 3.97 yards per carry. Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs must earn manageable third downs, while the line contains Chase Young. Aidan Hutchinson’s pressure on Tyler Shough offers a route to keeping the Saints’ offense, ranked 27th last season, off schedule.
New Orleans won four of its final five games last season, and Campbell highlighted Shough’s progress and Chris Olave’s threat. That late improvement is a warning against treating the Saints as an easy opponent, not proof of a new team rating. Detroit offers another game to spread exposure across, but we have no demonstrated popularity advantage that pays for the extra risk.
Matchup to watch: Can Gibbs and the line create manageable third downs against a Saints defense that allowed 3.97 yards per carry last season? Goff’s protection against Chase Young and Hutchinson’s ability to hurry Shough are the matchups to follow.
Jaguars: strong enough to justify a different game
Recommended for Amara Bravo
Jacksonville is our Strategic Pick because it offers a strong win chance while putting Amara Bravo in a different game. At 77.6%, it costs about 3.5 percentage points versus the Chargers. The home matchup has a reasonable football foundation: Jacksonville went 13–4 last season, Cleveland went 5–12, and Liam Coen returns for his second year. Last year’s records are context, not a guarantee.
Our 2025 efficiency baseline pairs Jacksonville’s third-ranked defense with Cleveland’s 31st-ranked offense. The harder part is the other side: Cleveland ranked fourth on defense, while Jacksonville ranked 14th on offense. Trevor Lawrence and center Robert Hainsey need to avoid sacks, turnovers and short fields. Jacksonville allowed 3.94 yards per carry last year; maintaining that resistance would make Cleveland sustain drives through the air.
The portfolio benefit is specific: LAC/JAX/LAC lowers the estimated chance of all three taking a first strike from 18.9% to 4.2%, assuming separate games are independent. It also preserves LAC for Amara Bravo later, although future prices are preliminary. This trades some immediate safety for less shared exposure; it is not a proven improvement in prize odds.
Matchup to watch: Can Lawrence avoid short fields against a defense that ranked fourth in our 2025 efficiency measure? Jacksonville allowed only 3.94 yards per carry last year; sustaining that run defense would put more of the burden on Cleveland’s passing game.
Choose a pairing and a stretch of seasons. The comparison table updates right away. These rates describe past games; they do not change our betting-board win chances.
Green marks the stronger observed value between these teams. Rates use total plays or attempts; no extra win-chance bonus is applied.
Head-to-Head · No Meetings in This Period
These teams did not meet during this period. Different rosters and coaches; previous meetings do not adjust our win probabilities.
Definitions & Sources
Regular season only. Current-season games stop before the report week and cutoff. By Decade uses calendar decades, clipped to the available data. Overall covers 2003 onward, not all NFL history. Earlier years are omitted from this capture where complete paired team-game statistics were unavailable. Teams are tracked through franchise relocations. Empty samples show dashes. Sacks count as dropbacks; net passing yards subtract sack yards.
EPA means expected points added. Passing EPA uses the feed’s QB EPA convention; carries include scrambles and kneels. Defense uses the opponent’s same-game totals. These figures are descriptive, without opponent adjustment, and do not change our betting-based win probabilities.
Results through 2026-09-08; source data checked Sep 8, 2026, 9:50 PM PT.
Early Calls, Hot Takes & a Schedule With Villain Energy
The season has not kicked off yet, so this is the opening forecast: a few calls to put on the record before September starts rewriting everybody’s opinions. The efficiency numbers below describe 2025, not form we have already seen in 2026.
Next Week’s Early Calls
Bills and Chargers—With Different Reasons to Sweat
My early Week 2 winners: Buffalo over Detroit on Thursday, September 17, and the Chargers over Las Vegas on Sunday, September 20. Buffalo’s offense ranked third in our 2025 efficiency measure, ahead of Detroit’s eighth. The catch: Buffalo allowed 5.1 yards per carry. I lean Bills, but Detroit’s run game is exactly why I would not treat this as a comfortable survivor spot.
The Chargers get my nod because last year’s seventh-ranked defense faces a Raiders offense that finished 32nd in the same measure. That is a starting point, not a verdict on the new Raiders. If Las Vegas shows much better execution in its opener, this is a call I will revisit.
My Early NFC Championship Matchup: Seahawks vs Rams
Yes, two teams from the same division. Seattle finished first in our defensive efficiency ranking; the Rams finished second on offense. Those are the foundations I would back for deep playoff runs. The uncomfortable part for Seattle believers: its offense ranked only 15th. I expect the Seahawks to remain contenders, but I am not buying the idea that every game should be a cruise. One ugly September win would not make me sell. San Francisco could spoil that bracket. I’m just not pricing in the Daejon Love breakout quite yet.
Arizona and Las Vegas at home, then Buffalo and Seattle on the road. After that come Denver, Kansas City, a bye, the Rams, Houston and Baltimore. Somebody set the difficulty to All-Madden and hid the controller.
Here is the survivor wrinkle: saving a good team can become an expensive hobby when its best matchups arrive immediately. The interesting question is whether a clean early Chargers opportunity beats saving them for that schedule. “Save them for later” needs an actual later game attached. Otherwise, you are hoarding the good potion until the credits roll.
These are editorial predictions, not locked pool selections. Week 1 results and verified availability can change the calls; the original takes stay in the archive.
Calls to Revisit
This Week’s Watchlist
Week 1 · On Record Sep 8, 2026, 10:09 PM PT
Upset Watch
3 Games That Could Flip
The underdogs with the best shot at making the favorites uncomfortable. Tap a card for board stats; tap again to close.
Underdog · named-book WPGB 47.9%Upset chance on the saved board
Anonymous schedule WPGB 46.8% · MIN 53.2%Unnamed schedule prices · not decision odds
SpreadMIN -1.5Reference line · Survivor needs an outright win
Favorite movementUnchanged1 book with repeats
Adj. EPA overallGB #23 · MIN #8n=1 / 1 games
nfelo Hard dissent · #18 vs #11FPI Lean favorite · #15 vs #16
Key injuries / availability
ALL · Injury report status Sunday injury listings are not populated. Current game-status confirmation remains pending. Do not interpret empty listings as healthy rosters. Status: Incomplete source.
Tap the matchup again to close. NFL Data fields from the published snapshot checked Sep 14, 2026, 8:13 AM PT. Named-book win chances stay on the betting board. nfelo, FPI and Adj. EPA are dissent / descriptive checks only — they are never blended into market WP or Pick Strength. Missing values show —.
SpreadHOU +1.5Reference line · Survivor needs an outright win
Favorite movementUnchanged1 book with repeats
Adj. EPA overallBUF #9 · HOU #22n=1 / 1 games
nfelo Agree · #3 vs #8FPI Agree · #3 vs #9
Key injuries / availability
ALL · Injury report status Sunday injury listings are not populated. Current game-status confirmation remains pending. Do not interpret empty listings as healthy rosters. Status: Incomplete source.
Tap the matchup again to close. NFL Data fields from the published snapshot checked Sep 14, 2026, 8:13 AM PT. Named-book win chances stay on the betting board. nfelo, FPI and Adj. EPA are dissent / descriptive checks only — they are never blended into market WP or Pick Strength. Missing values show —.
Underdog · named-book WPNYJ 46.6%Upset chance on the saved board
Anonymous schedule WPNYJ 48.3% · TEN 51.7%Unnamed schedule prices · not decision odds
SpreadTEN -1.5Reference line · Survivor needs an outright win
Favorite movementUnchanged1 book with repeats
Adj. EPA overallNYJ #6 · TEN #25n=1 / 1 games
nfelo Lean favorite · #28 vs #29FPI Soft dissent · #30 vs #28
Key injuries / availability
ALL · Injury report status Sunday injury listings are not populated. Current game-status confirmation remains pending. Do not interpret empty listings as healthy rosters. Status: Incomplete source.
Tap the matchup again to close. NFL Data fields from the published snapshot checked Sep 14, 2026, 8:13 AM PT. Named-book win chances stay on the betting board. nfelo, FPI and Adj. EPA are dissent / descriptive checks only — they are never blended into market WP or Pick Strength. Missing values show —.
Probabilities at the first call · Odds snapshot Sep 8, 2026, 3:29 PM PT. Paired no-vig moneylines with ties treated separately. Near-even prices can lead this list; inclusion is not a betting edge or a survivor recommendation. Ranks use the 2025 regular-season baseline. Current Betting Board & Sources.
The Receipt Starts Here. No previous-week results yet. Week 2 will revisit these exact calls, with scores and outcomes.
Super Bowl Favorites
Our Weekly Season Call
Our Pick: Rams Over Bills
Our No. 1
Rams
My champion: last season’s No. 2 offense and No. 2 overall efficiency give the Rams the most convincing starting case.
Our No. 2
Bills
My AFC winner: Buffalo’s No. 3 offense can carry a playoff run. A No. 13 defense leaves room for trouble.
Our No. 3
Seahawks
My bracket spoiler: the No. 1 defense is a championship foundation. The No. 15 offense is why Seattle sits third.
Each first recorded weekly call is saved unchanged. We grade the champion after the Super Bowl; price movement is context, not proof of accuracy. Weekly forecasts share the same championship outcome and are not independent trials.
Decision-Time Data & Methods Betting board, season grid, and historical checks
These tables stay frozen at this brief’s cutoff. For newer scores and records, use NFL Data.
Research & analysis
Do early weeks bring more upsets?
2017–2025 regular seasons · 2,363 games with usable two-way prices
Observed vs. market expected
Actual upset rateMarket expectation
Week 135.3%
49 upsets / 139 gamesMarket 36.3%
Weeks 2-337.8%
107 upsets / 283 gamesMarket 34.4%
Weeks 4+32.0%
622 upsets / 1,941 gamesMarket 33.1%
Bar scale: 0–50%. An upset is an underdog winning outright. Ties and pick’em games are excluded.
What the evidence supports
Week 1 had more upsets than Weeks 4+ in the raw sample. Once we account for the market’s expected risk, the difference is essentially zero.
Historical market-adjusted difference: 0.0 pp. 95% season-bootstrap interval: -8.5 pp to +7.5 pp. Our analysis does not support a blanket Week 1 probability penalty.
Strong favorites and limitations
Among favorites with at least 70% market win probability, underdogs won 8 of 36 Week 1 games (22.2%), versus 19.6% later.
Descriptive retrospective comparison. Archived price book and quote timing are unknown. Season bootstrap uses only nine clusters. No causal claim, no early-season probability adjustment, no validated decision-time betting edge. Excluded: 8 ties, 11 pick’em games, and 1 invalid or missing price pair.
EPA efficiency ranks: favorite first, underdog second. 17 games per team. Overall measures offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency allowed; it is separate from pool PS.
How these ranks work
Offense = (passing EPA + rushing EPA) / (pass attempts + sacks + carries). Defense = opponents’ EPA per included play allowed; lower is better. Overall = offense minus defense. Passing EPA uses nflverse QB EPA, which credits the passer up to a receiver’s lost fumble. Carries include scrambles and kneel-downs. No special teams or opponent adjustment. These descriptive efficiency ranks are separate from pool PS and do not alter market win probabilities.
EPA means expected points added: how much a play improves the scoring outlook. Early-season context needs caution; last season’s personnel and small new samples can mislead.
Tap a matchup row to open spread, movement, Adj. EPA, nfelo/FPI flags, and sourced availability notes. Tap again to close. Ratings and Adj. EPA never blend into the named-book win chances.
SpreadLAC -8.5Reference line · Survivor needs an outright win
Favorite movementUnchanged2 books with repeats
Adj. EPA overallARI #3 · LAC #28n=1 / 1 games
nfelo Agree · #16 vs #30FPI Agree · #17 vs #27
Key injuries / availability
ALL · Injury report status Sunday injury listings are not populated. Current game-status confirmation remains pending. Do not interpret empty listings as healthy rosters. Status: Incomplete source.
LAC · Team breakdown Safe Pick: strongest market favorite at 81.1%. Home field and recent team results support the matchup; a loss or tie still has an 18.9% chance. Herbert needs protection from Alt and rookie center Slaughter. Mack and James must limit big plays. Recheck quarterback/line availability and prices. Status: Preliminary; matchup interpretation with official team context.
Tap the matchup again to close. NFL Data fields from the published snapshot checked Sep 14, 2026, 8:13 AM PT. Named-book win chances stay on the betting board. nfelo, FPI and Adj. EPA are dissent / descriptive checks only — they are never blended into market WP or Pick Strength. Missing values show —.
SpreadJAX -8.5Reference line · Survivor needs an outright win
Favorite movementUnchanged2 books with repeats
Adj. EPA overallCLE #30 · JAX #1n=1 / 1 games
nfelo Agree · #17 vs #31FPI Agree · #4 vs #31
Key injuries / availability
JAX · Team context Jacksonville enters the opener at home after a 13-4 season; Cleveland finished 5-12. Records provide context, not a separate win-probability model. Confirm current availability. Status: Official team; Sept 7.
ALL · Injury report status Sunday injury listings are not populated. Current game-status confirmation remains pending. Do not interpret empty listings as healthy rosters. Status: Incomplete source.
JAX · Team breakdown Strategic Pick: 77.6% win chance, 3.5 points below LAC, in a separate game. LAC/JAX/LAC reduces shared first-strike risk; prize benefit is unproven. Lawrence and Hainsey must protect drives; Hines-Allen must disrupt Cleveland. Check availability and weather. Full reasoning is in the Week 1 HTML report. Status: Preliminary; matchup interpretation with official team context.
Tap the matchup again to close. NFL Data fields from the published snapshot checked Sep 14, 2026, 8:13 AM PT. Named-book win chances stay on the betting board. nfelo, FPI and Adj. EPA are dissent / descriptive checks only — they are never blended into market WP or Pick Strength. Missing values show —.
Underdog · named-book WPNO 26.5%Upset chance on the saved board
Anonymous schedule WPNO 26.6% · DET 73.4%Unnamed schedule prices · not decision odds
SpreadDET -7Reference line · Survivor needs an outright win
Favorite movement-0.2 pp2 books with repeats
Adj. EPA overallNO #20 · DET #11n=1 / 1 games
nfelo Agree · #5 vs #25FPI Agree · #13 vs #21
Key injuries / availability
ALL · Injury report status Sunday injury listings are not populated. Current game-status confirmation remains pending. Do not interpret empty listings as healthy rosters. Status: Incomplete source.
DET · Team breakdown Risky Pick: 73.2% win chance and 26.8% strike risk, about 8 points more risk than LAC. Saints improvement makes this a credible but less safe alternative. Goff/Petzing and Gibbs must sustain drives; protection against Young matters. Hutchinson must pressure Shough. Recheck offensive availability. Status: Preliminary; matchup interpretation with official team context.
Tap the matchup again to close. NFL Data fields from the published snapshot checked Sep 14, 2026, 8:13 AM PT. Named-book win chances stay on the betting board. nfelo, FPI and Adj. EPA are dissent / descriptive checks only — they are never blended into market WP or Pick Strength. Missing values show —.
SpreadPHI -6Reference line · Survivor needs an outright win
Favorite movement-0.2 pp2 books with repeats
Adj. EPA overallWAS #16 · PHI #15n=1 / 1 games
nfelo Agree · #9 vs #22FPI Agree · #12 vs #20
Key injuries / availability
ALL · Injury report status Sunday injury listings are not populated. Current game-status confirmation remains pending. Do not interpret empty listings as healthy rosters. Status: Incomplete source.
Tap the matchup again to close. NFL Data fields from the published snapshot checked Sep 14, 2026, 8:13 AM PT. Named-book win chances stay on the betting board. nfelo, FPI and Adj. EPA are dissent / descriptive checks only — they are never blended into market WP or Pick Strength. Missing values show —.
SpreadCIN -3.5Reference line · Survivor needs an outright win
Favorite movementUnchanged2 books with repeats
Adj. EPA overallTB #18 · CIN #13n=1 / 1 games
nfelo Agree · #10 vs #20FPI Agree · #10 vs #19
Key injuries / availability
ALL · Injury report status Sunday injury listings are not populated. Current game-status confirmation remains pending. Do not interpret empty listings as healthy rosters. Status: Incomplete source.
Tap the matchup again to close. NFL Data fields from the published snapshot checked Sep 14, 2026, 8:13 AM PT. Named-book win chances stay on the betting board. nfelo, FPI and Adj. EPA are dissent / descriptive checks only — they are never blended into market WP or Pick Strength. Missing values show —.
Underdog · named-book WPSF 35.6%Upset chance on the saved board
Anonymous schedule WPSF 34.3% · LA 65.7%Unnamed schedule prices · not decision odds
SpreadLA -3.5Reference line · Survivor needs an outright win
Favorite movement+0.4 pp2 books with repeats
Adj. EPA overallSF #4 · LA #27n=1 / 1 games
nfelo Agree · #1 vs #13FPI Hard dissent · #5 vs #1
Key injuries / availability
ALL · Injury report status Sunday injury listings are not populated. Current game-status confirmation remains pending. Do not interpret empty listings as healthy rosters. Status: Incomplete source.
Tap the matchup again to close. NFL Data fields from the published snapshot checked Sep 14, 2026, 8:13 AM PT. Named-book win chances stay on the betting board. nfelo, FPI and Adj. EPA are dissent / descriptive checks only — they are never blended into market WP or Pick Strength. Missing values show —.
SpreadPIT -6.5Reference line · Survivor needs an outright win
Favorite movement+0.3 pp2 books with repeats
Adj. EPA overallATL #17 · PIT #14n=1 / 1 games
nfelo Agree · #19 vs #26FPI Lean favorite · #22 vs #24
Key injuries / availability
ALL · Injury report status Sunday injury listings are not populated. Current game-status confirmation remains pending. Do not interpret empty listings as healthy rosters. Status: Incomplete source.
Tap the matchup again to close. NFL Data fields from the published snapshot checked Sep 14, 2026, 8:13 AM PT. Named-book win chances stay on the betting board. nfelo, FPI and Adj. EPA are dissent / descriptive checks only — they are never blended into market WP or Pick Strength. Missing values show —.
SpreadLV -3Reference line · Survivor needs an outright win
Favorite movement-0.1 pp2 books with repeats
Adj. EPA overallMIA #19 · LV #12n=1 / 1 games
nfelo Agree · #27 vs #32FPI Lean favorite · #29 vs #32
Key injuries / availability
ALL · Injury report status Sunday injury listings are not populated. Current game-status confirmation remains pending. Do not interpret empty listings as healthy rosters. Status: Incomplete source.
Tap the matchup again to close. NFL Data fields from the published snapshot checked Sep 14, 2026, 8:13 AM PT. Named-book win chances stay on the betting board. nfelo, FPI and Adj. EPA are dissent / descriptive checks only — they are never blended into market WP or Pick Strength. Missing values show —.
SpreadSEA -3Reference line · Survivor needs an outright win
Favorite movement+0.3 pp2 books with repeats
Adj. EPA overallNE #24 · SEA #7n=1 / 1 games
nfelo Agree · #2 vs #7FPI Hard dissent · #26 vs #14
Key injuries / availability
ALL · Injury report status Sunday injury listings are not populated. Current game-status confirmation remains pending. Do not interpret empty listings as healthy rosters. Status: Incomplete source.
Tap the matchup again to close. NFL Data fields from the published snapshot checked Sep 14, 2026, 8:13 AM PT. Named-book win chances stay on the betting board. nfelo, FPI and Adj. EPA are dissent / descriptive checks only — they are never blended into market WP or Pick Strength. Missing values show —.
Underdog · named-book WPIND 38.6%Upset chance on the saved board
Anonymous schedule WPBAL 59.3% · IND 40.7%Unnamed schedule prices · not decision odds
SpreadIND +3Reference line · Survivor needs an outright win
Favorite movement+0.1 pp2 books with repeats
Adj. EPA overallBAL #2 · IND #29n=1 / 1 games
nfelo Agree · #4 vs #21FPI Agree · #2 vs #23
Key injuries / availability
ALL · Injury report status Sunday injury listings are not populated. Current game-status confirmation remains pending. Do not interpret empty listings as healthy rosters. Status: Incomplete source.
Tap the matchup again to close. NFL Data fields from the published snapshot checked Sep 14, 2026, 8:13 AM PT. Named-book win chances stay on the betting board. nfelo, FPI and Adj. EPA are dissent / descriptive checks only — they are never blended into market WP or Pick Strength. Missing values show —.
Underdog · named-book WPCAR 40.7%Upset chance on the saved board
Anonymous schedule WPCHI 60.0% · CAR 40.0%Unnamed schedule prices · not decision odds
SpreadCAR +3Reference line · Survivor needs an outright win
Favorite movementUnchanged2 books with repeats
Adj. EPA overallCHI #5 · CAR #26n=1 / 1 games
nfelo Agree · #14 vs #24FPI Agree · #6 vs #25
Key injuries / availability
ALL · Injury report status Sunday injury listings are not populated. Current game-status confirmation remains pending. Do not interpret empty listings as healthy rosters. Status: Incomplete source.
Tap the matchup again to close. NFL Data fields from the published snapshot checked Sep 14, 2026, 8:13 AM PT. Named-book win chances stay on the betting board. nfelo, FPI and Adj. EPA are dissent / descriptive checks only — they are never blended into market WP or Pick Strength. Missing values show —.
SpreadNYG +3Reference line · Survivor needs an outright win
Favorite movement+0.2 pp2 books with repeats
Adj. EPA overallDAL #21 · NYG #10n=1 / 1 games
nfelo Agree · #15 vs #23FPI Agree · #8 vs #18
Key injuries / availability
ALL · Injury report status Sunday injury listings are not populated. Current game-status confirmation remains pending. Do not interpret empty listings as healthy rosters. Status: Incomplete source.
Tap the matchup again to close. NFL Data fields from the published snapshot checked Sep 14, 2026, 8:13 AM PT. Named-book win chances stay on the betting board. nfelo, FPI and Adj. EPA are dissent / descriptive checks only — they are never blended into market WP or Pick Strength. Missing values show —.
SpreadKC -2.5Reference line · Survivor needs an outright win
Favorite movement-0.2 pp2 books with repeats
Adj. EPA overallDEN — · KC —n unavailable
nfelo Agree · #6 vs #12FPI Agree · #7 vs #11
Key injuries / availability
ALL · Injury report status Sunday injury listings are not populated. Current game-status confirmation remains pending. Do not interpret empty listings as healthy rosters. Status: Incomplete source.
Tap the matchup again to close. NFL Data fields from the published snapshot checked Sep 14, 2026, 8:13 AM PT. Named-book win chances stay on the betting board. nfelo, FPI and Adj. EPA are dissent / descriptive checks only — they are never blended into market WP or Pick Strength. Missing values show —.
Underdog · named-book WPNYJ 46.6%Upset chance on the saved board
Anonymous schedule WPNYJ 48.3% · TEN 51.7%Unnamed schedule prices · not decision odds
SpreadTEN -1.5Reference line · Survivor needs an outright win
Favorite movementUnchanged1 book with repeats
Adj. EPA overallNYJ #6 · TEN #25n=1 / 1 games
nfelo Lean favorite · #28 vs #29FPI Soft dissent · #30 vs #28
Key injuries / availability
ALL · Injury report status Sunday injury listings are not populated. Current game-status confirmation remains pending. Do not interpret empty listings as healthy rosters. Status: Incomplete source.
Tap the matchup again to close. NFL Data fields from the published snapshot checked Sep 14, 2026, 8:13 AM PT. Named-book win chances stay on the betting board. nfelo, FPI and Adj. EPA are dissent / descriptive checks only — they are never blended into market WP or Pick Strength. Missing values show —.
SpreadHOU +1.5Reference line · Survivor needs an outright win
Favorite movementUnchanged1 book with repeats
Adj. EPA overallBUF #9 · HOU #22n=1 / 1 games
nfelo Agree · #3 vs #8FPI Agree · #3 vs #9
Key injuries / availability
ALL · Injury report status Sunday injury listings are not populated. Current game-status confirmation remains pending. Do not interpret empty listings as healthy rosters. Status: Incomplete source.
Tap the matchup again to close. NFL Data fields from the published snapshot checked Sep 14, 2026, 8:13 AM PT. Named-book win chances stay on the betting board. nfelo, FPI and Adj. EPA are dissent / descriptive checks only — they are never blended into market WP or Pick Strength. Missing values show —.
Underdog · named-book WPGB 47.9%Upset chance on the saved board
Anonymous schedule WPGB 46.8% · MIN 53.2%Unnamed schedule prices · not decision odds
SpreadMIN -1.5Reference line · Survivor needs an outright win
Favorite movementUnchanged1 book with repeats
Adj. EPA overallGB #23 · MIN #8n=1 / 1 games
nfelo Hard dissent · #18 vs #11FPI Lean favorite · #15 vs #16
Key injuries / availability
ALL · Injury report status Sunday injury listings are not populated. Current game-status confirmation remains pending. Do not interpret empty listings as healthy rosters. Status: Incomplete source.
Tap the matchup again to close. NFL Data fields from the published snapshot checked Sep 14, 2026, 8:13 AM PT. Named-book win chances stay on the betting board. nfelo, FPI and Adj. EPA are dissent / descriptive checks only — they are never blended into market WP or Pick Strength. Missing values show —.
Book Quotes & Sources Price captures and calculation notes
Records are for the current season. Quotes are saved observations, not a live feed; provider quote times are unavailable. Remove the margin from each book’s paired prices before averaging. Outright probabilities include the stated tie assumption. Market change is the shift in the favorite’s win estimate: positive means stronger, negative means weaker. It compares the first and last captures from the same books, not necessarily opening or closing lines. Differences smaller than 0.05 percentage points display as unchanged.
ARI at LAC5 captured observations · 2 distinct books
Find strong matchups now and opportunities worth saving. Current prices use our betting board; ~ marks a preliminary future estimate, with bookmaker and quote time unknown.
Find a suggested four-week path, then click a matchup to pin your choice. The other weeks recalculate around it. Click a pinned pick again to unpin. Full Season shows later matchups for reference; the highlight percentage only changes colors.
Your Four-Week What-If Path
—Alive Through W4
—Cost vs Best Unpinned Path
Pinned choices stay in this browser. Suggested routes are what-if calculations; they do not submit picks or change our recommendations. Later-opportunity counts exclude unpriced games.
Team
W1This Week
W2
W3
W4
W5
W6
W7
W8
W9
W10
W11
W12
W13
W14
W15
W16
W17
W18
Later ≥70%All Remaining Weeks
Chargers LAC
Bye
Jaguars JAX
Bye
Lions DET
Bye
Eagles PHI
Bye
Bengals CIN
Bye
Rams LA
Bye
Steelers PIT
Bye
Raiders LV
Bye
Seahawks SEA
Bye
Ravens BAL
Bye
Bears CHI
Bye
Cowboys DAL
Bye
Chiefs KC
Bye
Titans TEN
Bye
Bills BUF
Bye
Vikings MIN
Bye
Packers GB
Bye
Texans HOU
Bye
Jets NYJ
Bye
Broncos DEN
Bye
Giants NYG
Bye
Panthers CAR
Bye
Colts IND
Bye
Patriots NE
Bye
Dolphins MIA
Bye
Falcons ATL
Bye
49ers SF
Bye
Buccaneers TB
Bye
Commanders WAS
Bye
Saints NO
Bye
Browns CLE
Bye
Cardinals ARI
Bye
Click a matchup to pin it; its date and source appear here. Dashed outline = suggested. Solid outline = pinned. All 32 teams stay visible.
Grid Sources & What the Colors Mean
Green starts at your selected threshold; deeper green marks 75% and 80% or higher. Gray means below threshold, unavailable for the selected entry, or no paired price. A dashed blue outline marks a suggested pick; a solid outline marks your pinned choice. A team reserved elsewhere on the route is gray in other weeks; pin it elsewhere to recalculate the route. These are probability bands, not confidence ratings. A bye is not a 0% chance.
Each named book’s paired moneylines are normalized before averaging, with our 0.336% tie allowance. Anonymous schedule prices use the same conversion and remain labeled estimates. Future coverage can be incomplete and does not extend our four-week survival calculation. The suggested route maximizes fixed-path survival through the next four weeks (or Week 18, if earlier), among available priced matchups. It respects the selected entry’s confirmed used teams and prior strikes. A tie counts as a strike, and separate game outcomes are assumed independent. Pinned choices constrain that route. Cost is the percentage-point gap from the best route without your pins, using the same horizon and inventory. Missing prices stay missing; an unpriced pin leaves the estimate pending. With zero prior strikes, one game cannot eliminate an entry. This is not an adaptive policy, full-season optimum or league-win probability. The color threshold is not a solver constraint. Our actual future entry assignments remain private.
Current price cutoff: 2026-09-08T22:29:58Z. Schedule retrieved: 2026-09-09T03:06:05.956679Z. Schedule data. Named-book evidence is retained with the report.
Research & analysis
Model vs. the betting market
2025 held-out season · Lower Brier score and log loss are better
The market remains our baseline
The scoring-margin model used only earlier games and a previous-season prior. Across 272 games, it underperformed the archived market probabilities.
Forecast
Brier
Log loss
Archived market
0.2116
0.6082
Scoring-margin model
0.2311
0.6554
Paired Brier difference: +0.0195; 95% whole-week bootstrap interval +0.0074 to +0.0319. Positive means the model was worse.
How the system improves
Freeze forecasts before kickoff. Grade one home-win event per game, with ties counted as no home win, so repeated entry picks do not inflate the sample.
Track accuracy, team records, and calibration. Add a model to the decision only after it shows repeatable improvement on data it was not trained on.
Validation method and limitations
Before each 2025 week, fit only earlier 2025 games around a 2024 prior. No later 2025 results enter that week forecast. Fixed ridge penalty 8; Gaussian margin approximation. Score one home-win event per game, ties as no home win.
Archived moneyline book and quote time are not identified, so this is an exploratory benchmark, not a decision-time A/B test. Model hyperparameters are defaults, not evidence of optimality. Market probabilities here are two-way no-vig without a tie correction. Only one validation season; cross-season dependence and regime change remain.
Research & Source Evidence Original observations and supporting links
ALL · Market refreshMarket refresh
29 paired quotes rechecked; FanDuel moved on NE-SEA, NO-DET, WAS-PHI and DAL-NYG. BetUS pairs unchanged. Leaders unchanged. DET probability declined slightly; provider quote times remain unavailable. Status: Verified opened pages.
Chargers identify rookie Jake Slaughter as the starting center and Mike McDaniel as new offensive coordinator. Execution watch item; no extra numerical penalty without evidence beyond the market. Status: Official team; Sept 7.
Jacksonville enters the opener at home after a 13-4 season; Cleveland finished 5-12. Records provide context, not a separate win-probability model. Confirm current availability. Status: Official team; Sept 7.
Detroit starts with a new offensive coordinator; New Orleans finished 2025 with four wins in five games. Avoid extrapolating either short streak or coaching change into an arbitrary adjustment. Status: Official team; Sept 7.
Sunday injury listings are not populated. Current game-status confirmation remains pending. Do not interpret empty listings as healthy rosters. Status: Incomplete source.
A current Jacksonville game-time forecast was not obtained in this run. Recheck closer to kickoff; no weather adjustment applied. Status: Retrieval unavailable.
Highest immediate win probability selects LAC for all three eligible entries. Keep this market-only benchmark separate from the provisional three-game slate. Expected prize benefit from diversification is unproven. Status: Analytical benchmark.
Green Bay over Minnesota is the highest outright underdog probability in the captured board, about 47.9%. Near coin flip, not a survivor selection. One named book only; highest likelihood does not establish value. Status: Market estimate; single book.
FanDuel BAL-IND recheck: Baltimore -184, Indianapolis +154. Retained a new quote snapshot; leading options unchanged. Status: Observed; quote time unknown.
16 FanDuel pairs rechecked in the afternoon. Leading options LAC, JAX and DET unchanged. BetUS observations retained from the morning capture. Use each book's latest saved pair and show separate observation times; this is not a live odds feed. Status: Opened-page observations; provider quote time unavailable.
Safe Pick: strongest market favorite at 81.1%. Home field and recent team results support the matchup; a loss or tie still has an 18.9% chance. Herbert needs protection from Alt and rookie center Slaughter. Mack and James must limit big plays. Recheck quarterback/line availability and prices. Status: Preliminary; matchup interpretation with official team context.
Risky Pick: 73.2% win chance and 26.8% strike risk, about 8 points more risk than LAC. Saints improvement makes this a credible but less safe alternative. Goff/Petzing and Gibbs must sustain drives; protection against Young matters. Hutchinson must pressure Shough. Recheck offensive availability. Status: Preliminary; matchup interpretation with official team context.
Strategic Pick: 77.6% win chance, 3.5 points below LAC, in a separate game. LAC/JAX/LAC reduces shared first-strike risk; prize benefit is unproven. Lawrence and Hainsey must protect drives; Hines-Allen must disrupt Cleveland. Check availability and weather. Full reasoning is in the Week 1 HTML report. Status: Preliminary; matchup interpretation with official team context.
Historical game outcomes and betting prices2017–2025 upset study · 2025 model evaluation
nflverse game and moneyline dataset supplies the historical game outcomes and moneylines used in our calculations. Book identity and quote timing are not identified in this archive; we label that limitation throughout.
Survival, clean records, and prize chances are different measures
Coordinate the entries after assessing each one
Working slate: LAC / JAX / LAC. At least one clean entry: 95.8%; every entry takes a strike: 4.2%; all stay clean: 63.0%. Shared-game outcomes are counted together; different games are assumed independent. These are not prize probabilities.
A loss or tie adds one strike. Two strikes eliminate an entry. Each entry’s used teams and losses determine its next eligible options; diversification is not automatic.
Our entries, beyond this game
Survivor outlook & Pick Strength
Week 1–4 · 4-week planning estimate
Survivor outlook = the estimated chance this entry is still alive after Week 4. It starts from actual losses, removes every previously used team, and compares each option with its best available fixed continuation. A tie uses a strike; two strikes eliminate the entry.
At Week 5, the same calculation uses Weeks 5–8 and each entry’s own remaining teams. A past win is already known: we carry forward its effect on losses and team availability, rather than multiplying old win forecasts into today’s chance.
Future prices are preliminary planning proxies with unidentified books and quote times. Outcomes across weeks are assumed independent. This is a limited-horizon scenario, not a calibrated season or prize forecast. No future team selections are committed by this calculation.
Entry / draft
Alive through W4
PS with draft*
Losses / used
Amara Alpha LAC
82.8%
14
0 / 0
Amara Bravo JAX
81.5%
17
0 / 0
Amara Charlie LAC
82.8%
14
0 / 0
*PS with draft = prior selections valued at the current pool ranks + draft rank. A recommendation is not added to the submitted-pick history without submission confirmation. Live pool PS is copied as displayed and may already include a visible current pick. Frozen prior PS retains each rank as it stood when that pick was finalized.
Compare all Safe / Risky / Strategic options
Entry
Option
Game win
Alive through W4
Versus Safe
PS with draft
Amara Alpha
LAC · Safe Pick ✓
81.1%
82.8%
Baseline
14
Amara Alpha
DET · Risky Pick
73.2%
79.8%
-3.0 pp
11
Amara Alpha
JAX · Strategic Pick
77.6%
81.5%
-1.3 pp
17
Amara Bravo
LAC · Safe Pick
81.1%
82.8%
Baseline
14
Amara Bravo
DET · Risky Pick
73.2%
79.8%
-3.0 pp
11
Amara Bravo
JAX · Strategic Pick ✓
77.6%
81.5%
-1.3 pp
17
Amara Charlie
LAC · Safe Pick ✓
81.1%
82.8%
Baseline
14
Amara Charlie
DET · Risky Pick
73.2%
79.8%
-3.0 pp
11
Amara Charlie
JAX · Strategic Pick
77.6%
81.5%
-1.3 pp
17
“Versus Safe” compares options for the same entry and end week. It includes both immediate risk and which teams remain available. It is not a league-win boost; a portfolio recommendation can trade individual survival for less shared exposure.
Live PS, frozen totals, and how this score evolves
Entry
Live pool PS
Frozen prior PS
Prior picks at current ranks
Amara Alpha
14
0
0
Amara Bravo
0
0
0
Amara Charlie
0
0
0
Pool Pick Strength adds the power-rank numbers of selected teams: #1 is strongest, #32 weakest. Low PS means more strong teams have been used. High PS can mean more risk was taken. Neither is automatically better. The pool uses PS as a final tiebreaker for places other than first; the direction of that tiebreaker is still unconfirmed.
We retain both live PS and frozen ranks, and save each week’s survival estimate before results arrive. PS is cumulative; survival probability is recalculated from the current state, not added across weeks. Comparing successive rolling scores also changes the end week, so a movement alone is not proof the strategy improved.
League-win percentage: not estimated yet. Hidden/unposted picks, incomplete opponent histories and unresolved endgame rules do not support a defensible figure. Visible field choices and loss counts can inform exposure decisions without pretending to know everyone’s picks.
Start (P0, P1) = (1, 0) at zero losses, or (0, 1) at one loss. Next P0 = P0 × p Next P1 = P1 × p + P0 × (1 − p) Survivor outlook = P0 + P1
P0 and P1 are the probabilities of finishing with zero and one total strike. The same strike calculation includes losses and ties. See NIST’s state-transition definition; the application and planning assumptions here are our own. Future-price source: nflverse schedule dataset, retained planning snapshot; provider quote time unknown.
Odds observed Sep 8, 2026, 3:29 PM PT; pool/ranks observed Sep 8, 2026, 8:06 PM PT. Calculated Sep 8, 2026, 8:52 PM PT. Priced coverage: W1 32/32 teams · W2 32/32 teams · W3 30/32 teams · W4 32/32 teams.
Research & analysis
How the field is doing
Pool snapshot · Sep 8, 2026, 8:06 PM PT
139Active
0Eliminated
26Visible
17Hidden
96Unposted
139 entries have zero losses; 0 have one loss. Everyone is level on losses, so the standings do not yet give us a reason to chase.
Hidden and unposted picks are unknown. Their power-rank totals are never used to reverse-engineer hidden selections. This dated snapshot retains stable field IDs; the League Standings tab shows the pool’s entry names and latest posted selections.
*Lower and upper bounds treat every unknown pick as either elsewhere or on this team. These are bounds, not estimates of popularity.
View all 139 entries: losses, visible picks and live PS
Entry
Losses
Pick status
Visible team
Pool PS
Field 001
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 002
0
Visible
Ravens
8
Field 003
0
Hidden
Unknown
0
Field 004
0
Hidden
Unknown
0
Field 005
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 006
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 007
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 008
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 009
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 010
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 011
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 012
0
Visible
Raiders
27
Field 013
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 014
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 015
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 016
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 017
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 018
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 019
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 020
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 021
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 022
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 023
0
Visible
Raiders
27
Field 024
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 025
0
Visible
Jaguars
17
Field 026
0
Visible
Chargers
14
Field 028
0
Hidden
Unknown
0
Field 029
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 030
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 031
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 032
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 033
0
Hidden
Unknown
0
Field 034
0
Visible
Jaguars
17
Field 035
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 036
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 037
0
Visible
Raiders
27
Field 038
0
Visible
Vikings
22
Field 039
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 040
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 041
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 042
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 043
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 044
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 045
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 046
0
Hidden
Unknown
0
Field 047
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 048
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 049
0
Hidden
Unknown
0
Field 050
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 051
0
Hidden
Unknown
0
Field 052
0
Visible
Jaguars
17
Field 053
0
Visible
Chargers
14
Field 054
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 055
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 056
0
Hidden
Unknown
0
Field 057
0
Hidden
Unknown
0
Field 058
0
Hidden
Unknown
0
Field 059
0
Hidden
Unknown
0
Field 060
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 061
0
Visible
Eagles
5
Field 062
0
Visible
Bengals
16
Field 063
0
Hidden
Unknown
0
Field 064
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 065
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 066
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 067
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 068
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 069
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 070
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 071
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 072
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 073
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 074
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 075
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 076
0
Visible
Jaguars
17
Field 077
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 078
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 079
0
Visible
Chargers
14
Field 080
0
Visible
Lions
11
Field 081
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 082
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 083
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 084
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 085
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 086
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 089
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 090
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 091
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 092
0
Visible
Jaguars
17
Field 093
0
Visible
Jaguars
17
Field 094
0
Visible
Lions
11
Field 095
0
Hidden
Unknown
0
Field 096
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 097
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 098
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 099
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 100
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 101
0
Visible
Chargers
14
Amara Alpha
0
Visible
Chargers
14
Amara Bravo
0
Hidden
Unknown
0
Amara Charlie
0
Hidden
Unknown
0
Field 105
0
Hidden
Unknown
0
Field 106
0
Visible
Raiders
27
Field 107
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 108
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 109
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 110
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 111
0
Visible
Jaguars
17
Field 112
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 113
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 114
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 115
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 117
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 118
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 120
0
Hidden
Unknown
0
Field 121
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 122
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 123
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 124
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 125
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 126
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 127
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 128
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 129
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 130
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 131
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 132
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 133
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 134
0
Visible
Broncos
4
Field 135
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 136
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 137
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 138
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 139
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 140
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 141
0
Not posted
Unknown
0
Field 142
0
Visible
Jaguars
17
Field 143
0
Visible
Chargers
14
Field 144
0
Visible
Bengals
16
Ordered by losses, then stable field ID; this is not a PS-based league ranking. PS is copied from the pool snapshot and can include the current visible pick.
Research & analysis
Where the win percentage comes from
Game win chance and survivor outlook answer different questions
The percentage on each pick card estimates that team’s outright win chance in this one game. It comes from the latest saved paired moneylines at FanDuel and BetUS, with the bookmaker margin removed separately for each book, then an equal-weight average and a small tie allowance. It does not include our prior picks or represent a chance to win the league. Locked picks retain their decision-time odds; the betting board and portfolio comparisons use the report’s latest reviewed snapshot.
For this report, the latest odds capture is Sep 8, 2026, 3:29 PM PT. The betting table shows every book, price and observation time. The separate Survivor outlook above carries our losses and used teams into a multi-week calculation. Team records and football analysis inform the recommendation; our diagnostic statistical model currently has zero weight in the displayed win percentage.
Example from this snapshot: FanDuel: LAC -550 / ARI +410 → 81.2% after removing margin; BetUS: LAC -550 / ARI +425 → 81.6% after removing margin. Averaging those estimates and allowing 0.336% for a tie gives 81.1% outright win chance. The remaining 18.9% is loss-or-tie risk. A market-based estimate is not a guarantee.
1. Capture prices
Save both sides of the moneyline from named books with source URLs and timestamps.
2. Remove margin
Normalize each book’s implied probabilities so the two sides sum to one, then average books.
3. Account for ties
The retained tie prior is 8 in 2,383 games (0.3%). A tie counts as a survivor strike.
4. Assess each entry
Consider eligible teams, losses, sourced team context, uncertainty, and joint exposure before recommending a pick.
A win probability is a forecast. Multi-week survival needs an explicit future path and dependence assumptions; a season prize probability needs a credible field model.
Make a Suggestion or Request Specific Data Help Shape the Next Report
A matchup stat we missed? A better way to compare teams? Tell us what would make this more useful.
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